Developing a financial expenditure baseline of adult social care for a local council

Impacts

Established a robust evidence base across 5,700 adults receiving 7,200+ care packages
Identified the main driver of increased expenditure as an increase in spend on long-stay support
Equipped the council with the insight to strengthen long-term financial sustainability by tackling high-cost drivers in the face of rising demand

Opportunity

A local council’s adult social care system was experiencing growing strain, driven by rising demand for long-term care placements and the increasing complexity of older and working-age adults. While expenditure had risen steadily, there was limited visibility of the drivers of cost growth, how this compared to previous years, or how spending patterns aligned with those of similar authorities. Decisions were often made in isolation, with limited integration between financial, operational, and outcomes data, creating uncertainty around where efficiencies or improvements in outcomes could be achieved.

At the same time, the expenditure had shifted toward long-stay provision, posing questions about sustainability and the effectiveness of existing preventative pathways. In this context, the LA commissioned a comprehensive diagnostic to establish a robust evidence base, understand the drivers of demand and cost, and identify opportunities to improve both the cost-effectiveness and outcomes of adult social care delivery.

Approach

  1. Developing a detailed baseline: Analysed several public and internal datasets to gain a well-rounded understanding of the council’s expenditure and activity for all adult social care service types
  2. Benchmarking performance: Mapped the council against its ‘statistical neighbours’ (using the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy model) to identify where the council’s activity and expenditure was an outlier
  3. Problem-solving recommendations: Engaged with system colleagues to test and refine recommendations, which included:
  • Improving the quality of short-stay support services, e.g. reablement, by developing outcomes-based incentives for providers
  • Expanding accessibility to, and utilisation of supported living and extra care accommodation, particularly for individuals transitioning from children to adult social care services, to reduce the likelihood of individuals requiring long-stay care home placements
  • Continuing the council’s trend of a rise in the number of adults receiving direct payments to increase the flexibility for residents to choose how they want their care to be delivered